Market Analysis: 14 September, 2016
By Christala Parmaxi
UK Economic Releases
British Pound plunged yesterday as a result of pure economic data release. August YoY CPI missed expectations of 0.7% by 10 points while House Price Index released at 8.3% against forecasts of 8.5%. Furthermore, August monthly Producer Price Index Input missed expectations by 40 points as the actual figure was 0.2%. Today, UK Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change were released at 2.3% and 2.4K respectively while July’s Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9%.
Tomorrow at 01:45 server time we are awaiting for New Zealand’s Q2 GDP growth. The forecasts are looking at 1.1% change against the 0.7% growth of the first quarter. Later, at 04:30 server time, Australian August Employment Change is going to be released and the expectations lie around 15k versus the surprising positive change of July at 26.2K. Meanwhile, AUDUSD is trading on 7-week record low levels.
Tomorrow during the European morning we expect the policy meeting of the Swiss National Bank. The Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at -0.75%; the rate is steady since January 2015. SNB treats carefully the interest rates decisions as usually the rates are steady for a long period of time.
The EURGBP found resistance on 0.8415 and surged to monthly highs up to the level of 0.8533. At the time of writing the pair is correcting to the downside. Upon penetration of the support level of 0.849 we would expect the correction to last until the next valid support level of 0.8455. The resistance levels to be watched are around 0.8525 and 0.856.
The AUDUSD closed far below the uptrend line on the daily timeframe. MACD had a bearish cross with its trigger and its equilibrium line while ADX indicates negative directional movement.
Yesterday the price recovered up to Fibonacci 38.2% level and then it fall to new low levels. Today the price is recovering, a possible scenario would be for the pair to recover up to Fibo 23.6% and then decline down to the support level of 0.745, upon penetration of it we are looking for the psychological support of 0.74.
The Loonie surged up to 1.3188 achieving a 5-week high and locking the profit of Monday’s recommendation. We would expect the pair to rise even further up to the next psychological resistance level of 1.324 which coincides with SMA200. Stochastic is slopping above its overbought level while MACD and RSI are above their equilibrium levels on bullish territories. The risks to the downside lie on the support level of 1.304.
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